EFC External Research Ledger

Pitch Ledger White Paper Roadmap Gaps External Predictions Atlas Changelog

Morten Magnusson · Symbiose Research, Sandnes, Norway · ORCID: 0009-0002-4860-5095 · April 2026 · CC-BY-4.0

Version 1.0 · Last verified: Morten Magnusson · Generated: 2026-04-18T13:20:33.446606Z

What this ledger is. A curated record of third-party research that informs, constrains, competes with, or awaits EFC validation tests. Each external paper is materialized in Neo4j as a Publication node (multi-labeled :External, and :Framework when it represents a competing theoretical framework) and linked via typed edges: INFORMS (paper provides data for an EFC test), COMPETES_WITH (alternative theoretical framework), and INFORMS_GAP/BLOCKS_RESOLUTION_OF (affects an EFC knowledge gap).

How to read it. The matrix below gives a one-screen overview. Each thematic cluster then has a short editorial synthesis, followed by individual publication entries with a structured Impact on EFC table, a verified EFC synthesis, and the full cross-reference list into the validation-ledger test graph.

Evidential separation. External papers live here, in this ledger. EFC's own publications (Figshare DOIs) live in the Ledger evidence register. These two layers never mix — a rule enforced both in the graph schema (tier = 'external' vs own) and in this renderer.

Synthesis source. AI-drafted by claude-opus-4-7 from watchlist metadata fields only — title, efc_relevance, ledger_action, source_type. NOT based on full-text reading of referenced papers or abstracts.

Language policy. English only. Claim discipline. Consistency is not confirmation. Phrasing uses "informs", "tightens", "constrains", "challenges" — never "supports"/"confirms" unless backed by a sealed blind test.

Overview matrix

Theme / cluster	Papers	Graph edges	Primary EFC aspect
DESI DR2 and dynamical dark energy (w₀wₐ)	2	4	Dark energy evolution w(z); EFC α background parameter
DES Y6 and the S8 tension (2026 series)	3	5 5	Perturbation-sector S8; EFC μ(a) < 1 prediction
High-precision CMB lensing (ACT + SPT + Planck)	1	2	CMB lensing S8; gravitational slip η; hi_class solver
JWST Bullet Cluster — independent mass reconstructions	2	3 1	Shock-front lensing asymmetry δκ (pre-registered EFC test)
Rotation curves — data and competing models	2	3	Galaxy rotation curves; Kill-Test v6 universality
Future arbiters (awaiting data)	1	3	Sealed blind test; Euclid DR1 (FROZEN until 2026-10-21)
Competing theoretical frameworks	2	2	Alternative theoretical frameworks; recovery-condition comparison
Total across all themes	13	22 6

Graph edges column shows confirmed (green) and proposed (yellow) edge counts per cluster. Proposed edges are medium/low-confidence mappings awaiting follow-up review before auto-promotion.

Thematic clusters

DESI DR2 and dynamical dark energy (w₀wₐ)

DESI DR2 shows a 3.1σ preference for w₀wₐ over a pure cosmological constant, independently reproduced by the Nature Astronomy reanalysis. The direction is compatible with EFC's L2→L3 regime transition and with α = −0.14 ± 0.21. The same signal is, however, also predicted by holographic dark energy, quintessence, and several other frameworks — the field is moving away from ΛCDM, but it does not select EFC over competitors.

DESI DR2 Results II: BAO Measurements and Cosmological Constraints 2 confirmed

arXiv: 2503.14738 · Published: 2025-03-19 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Dark energy evolution w(z); EFC α background parameter
External claim (verbatim)	2.3σ ΛCDM tension, 3.1σ preference for w0wa; supports EFC L2→L3 regime transition and WP4 T(S).
EFC tests informed	`conv_desi_dr2_bao_constraint_post_prediction_` `ledger_darkenergy_evolution_wz`
Edges to graph	2 confirmed
Ledger action required	Add L2 row to Validation Ledger; update gap theory-background-hz-modification to 'decision-ready'.

EFC synthesis (verified)

DESI DR2 reports 2.3σ tension with ΛCDM and a 3.1σ preference for w₀wₐ dynamical dark energy over a pure cosmological constant. The w(z) signature is directionally consistent with EFC's L2→L3 regime transition and with α = −0.14 ± 0.21. The same signal is, however, accommodated by several competing frameworks — it constrains ΛCDM more than it selects EFC.

All cross-references:

INFORMS → ledger_darkenergy_evolution_wz (Test) high
3.1σ preference for w0wa directly informs dark-energy evolution w(z) test.
INFORMS → conv_desi_dr2_bao_constraint_post_prediction_ (Test) high
Direct subject match: DESI DR2 BAO α-constraint.

Dynamical dark energy in light of DESI DR2 BAO (Nature Astronomy) 2 confirmed

DOI: 10.1038/s41550-025-02669-6 · Published: 2025-10-06 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Dark energy evolution w(z); EFC α background parameter
External claim (verbatim)	Independent confirmation of w0wa preference; bolsters EFC 'LCDM as special case' (α = −0.14 ± 0.21).
EFC tests informed	`desi_dr2_bao_alpha_constraint_v1` `ledger_darkenergy_evolution_wz`
Edges to graph	2 confirmed
Ledger action required	Cite in WP1 recovery conditions section.

EFC synthesis (verified)

Nature Astronomy reanalysis independently reproduces DESI DR2's w₀wₐ preference. This strengthens the empirical case that dark energy is not a simple cosmological constant, leaving EFC's α estimate (−0.14 ± 0.21) consistent with the preferred direction. It is independent confirmation of the signal, not selective evidence for EFC over alternative dynamical-DE frameworks.

All cross-references:

INFORMS → ledger_darkenergy_evolution_wz (Test) high
Nature Astronomy paper on w0wa preference directly informs dark-energy evolution test.
INFORMS → desi_dr2_bao_alpha_constraint_v1 (Test) high
efc_relevance cites α = −0.14 ± 0.21, the exact parameter of this test.

DES Y6 and the S8 tension (2026 series)

DES Y6 delivers S8 ≈ 0.79 from both cosmic shear and 3×2pt — 2.4–2.7σ lower than Planck+ACT+SPT (0.836), while KiDS-Legacy sits close to Planck. The 2026 review paper consolidates the picture: the probe split is a real feature, not an artifact. EFC's pre-registered DES Y6 P3 PASS (0.944 ± 0.018) and μ(a)<1 prediction survive the published numbers, but the observed tension admits multiple explanations beyond EFC — including baryonic feedback, intrinsic-alignment systematics, and other μ<1 models.

Dark Energy Survey Year 6: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear 1 confirmed 2 proposed

arXiv: 2602.10065 · Published: 2026-02 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Probe: cosmic_shear_only · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Perturbation-sector S8; EFC μ(a) < 1 prediction
External claim (verbatim)	S8 = 0.798 (NLA); 2.6σ CMB tension validates EFC logged DES Y6 P3 PASS (0.944 ± 0.018) and μ(a) < 1 prediction.
EFC tests informed	`conv_b0_bridge_test_f_sign_constraint_must_be_less_than_1` `ledger_p3_lensingtocmb_s8ratio_des_y6_preregistered` `ledger_weaklensing_shear_case_a`
Edges to graph	1 confirmed 2 proposed
Ledger action required	Replace preliminary DES Y6 row in Validation Ledger with published values.

EFC synthesis (verified)

DES Y6 cosmic shear delivers S8 = 0.798 (NLA), carrying 2.6σ tension against Planck CMB. EFC's pre-registered DES Y6 P3 PASS (0.944 ± 0.018) and μ(a)<1 prediction survive under the published values. The observed tension is shared with multiple μ<1 models and baryonic-feedback scenarios — it tightens the baseline but does not discriminate among them.

All cross-references:

INFORMS → ledger_p3_lensingtocmb_s8ratio_des_y6_preregistered (Test) high
efc_relevance cites 'EFC logged DES Y6 P3 PASS (0.944 ± 0.018)'.
INFORMS → ledger_weaklensing_shear_case_a (Test) low · proposed
Graph has 4 Case A variants, no distinguishing evidence in watchlist. Needs Morten's pick.
INFORMS → conv_b0_bridge_test_f_sign_constraint_must_be_less_than_1 (Test) low · proposed
Theory-shared μ<1 but not data-shared with B0 bridge test.

DES Y6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Clustering and Weak Lensing (3×2pt) 3 confirmed 2 proposed

arXiv: 2601.14559 · Published: 2026-01 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Probe: 3x2pt · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Perturbation-sector S8; EFC μ(a) < 1 prediction
External claim (verbatim)	S8 = 0.789 ± 0.012, Ωm = 0.333; wCDM: w = −1.12. Direct 3×2pt anchor for EFC perturbation sector tests.
EFC tests informed	`conv_2d_degeneracy_valley_perturbation_sector_viability_with_grav` `conv_efc_physics_localization_perturbation_sector_not_background` `conv_mgcamb_mu_sigma_perturbation_scan_constant_mu_sigma_1_` `ledger_p3_lensingtocmb_s8ratio_des_y6_preregistered` `ledger_perturbationsector_valley`
Edges to graph	3 confirmed 2 proposed
Ledger action required	Add to Validation Ledger (perturbation probes); cross-reference in WP3 Falsification Protocol.

EFC synthesis (verified)

DES Y6 3×2pt reports S8 = 0.789 ± 0.012, Ωm = 0.333, and wCDM w = −1.12. This is primary perturbation-sector data for EFC confrontation — combining galaxy clustering, cosmic shear, and galaxy-galaxy lensing into joint constraints on μ and Σ. No EFC analysis against this specific dataset has been executed yet.

All cross-references:

INFORMS → ledger_p3_lensingtocmb_s8ratio_des_y6_preregistered (Test) high
DES Y6 3×2pt is the primary S8 probe referenced in P3 test.
INFORMS → conv_efc_physics_localization_perturbation_sector_not_background (Test) high
3×2pt IS perturbation-sector data.
INFORMS → conv_2d_degeneracy_valley_perturbation_sector_viability_with_grav (Test) medium · proposed
One step more specific ('with_grav') than raw 3×2pt data provides.
INFORMS → conv_mgcamb_mu_sigma_perturbation_scan_constant_mu_sigma_1_ (Test) medium · proposed
MGCAMB is analytical tool for interpreting 3×2pt.
INFORMS → ledger_perturbationsector_valley (Test) high
3×2pt constrains joint μ-Σ degeneracy valley.

Status of the S8 Tension: A 2026 Review of Probe Discrepancies 1 confirmed 1 proposed

arXiv: 2602.12238 · Published: 2026-02 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Perturbation-sector S8; EFC μ(a) < 1 prediction
External claim (verbatim)	Canonical S8 cross-probe table: Planck+ACT+SPT 0.836; DES Y6 2.4–2.7σ; KiDS <1σ. Sharpens L1→L2 transition evidence.
EFC tests informed	`conv__z_full_trajectory_reconstruction_efc_vs_cdm_vs_multi_survey` `conv_des_y6_vs_kids_legacy_divergens_som_efc_strukturprediksjon`
Edges to graph	1 confirmed 1 proposed
Ledger action required	Cite in WP3 Falsification Protocol and Validation Ledger preamble.

EFC synthesis (verified)

Review consolidating the S8 cross-probe picture: Planck+ACT+SPT = 0.836, DES Y6 2.4–2.7σ below Planck, KiDS-Legacy <1σ from Planck. Confirms the probe split as a stable feature of the 2026 data landscape, not a transient artifact. Informs EFC's L1→L2 transition framing — but offers no discriminating evidence against alternative μ<1 explanations.

All cross-references:

INFORMS → conv_des_y6_vs_kids_legacy_divergens_som_efc_strukturprediksjon (Test) high
efc_relevance summarizes the DES Y6 vs KiDS divergence this test is named after.
INFORMS → conv__z_full_trajectory_reconstruction_efc_vs_cdm_vs_multi_survey (Test) low · proposed
Review paper — transitive only.

High-precision CMB lensing (ACT + SPT + Planck)

Joint ACT + SPT + Planck CMB lensing reaches S8 = 0.825 at 1.6% precision (SNR 61). The precision exceeds what EFC's current Boltzmann-based pipeline handles numerically. This elevates the theory-efclass-boltzmann-solver gap to blocking: without a production-ready hi_class integration, EFC cannot meet this precision level head-to-head.

Unified structure growth from joint ACT, SPT and Planck CMB lensing 2 confirmed

arXiv: 2504.20038 · Published: 2025-04 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	CMB lensing S8; gravitational slip η; hi_class solver
External claim (verbatim)	S8 = 0.825 at 1.6% precision (SNR 61); tightens baseline for Kill-Test v6 probe-6 and makes gap theory-efclass-boltzmann-solver binding.
EFC tests informed	`conv_hi_class_scalar_tensor_efc_falsification_test` `ledger_cmb_lensing_gravitational_slip`
Edges to graph	2 confirmed
Ledger action required	Update Stage-IV Roadmap CMB-lensing row; promote Boltzmann-solver gap to blocking.

EFC synthesis (verified)

Joint CMB-lensing analysis reaches S8 = 0.825 at 1.6% precision (SNR 61). The precision exceeds what EFC's current Boltzmann pipeline handles numerically, making theory-efclass-boltzmann-solver the binding gap. To compete at this regime EFC must deliver a production-grade hi_class integration.

All cross-references:

INFORMS → conv_hi_class_scalar_tensor_efc_falsification_test (Test) high
hi_class / Boltzmann-solver pipeline is what ledger_action promotes to blocking.
INFORMS → ledger_cmb_lensing_gravitational_slip (Test) high
Joint ACT+SPT+Planck CMB-lensing is primary data for CMB-lensing + slip test.

JWST Bullet Cluster — independent mass reconstructions

Two independent JWST mass reconstructions of the Bullet Cluster are now available: 146 strong-lensing constraints with dense weak-lensing source density (Cha/Jee/Finner) and 135 multiple images across 27 spectroscopic systems (Rihtaršič/Bradač). EFC's pre-registered δκ shock-front test (figshare 31963668) therefore has the observational data it requires. The bottleneck is EFC's internal pipeline, not the data — delivery responsibility lies with us, not with the field.

A High-Caliber View of the Bullet Cluster through JWST Strong and Weak Lensing 2 confirmed

arXiv: 2503.21870 · Published: 2025-03 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Shock-front lensing asymmetry δκ (pre-registered EFC test)
External claim (verbatim)	146 SL constraints + dense WL; decisive dataset for the pre-registered EFC δκ shock-front test (figshare 31963668).
EFC tests informed	`conv_asig_shock_front_lensing_asymmetry_jwst_era_execution` `ledger_cluster_shockfront_lensing_asymmetry`
Edges to graph	2 confirmed
Ledger action required	Move JWST Bullet δκ test up in Stage-IV Roadmap priority; data is available, test pipeline is now the bottleneck.

EFC synthesis (verified)

High-caliber JWST analysis of the Bullet Cluster combines 146 strong-lensing constraints with dense weak-lensing source density (398/arcmin²). Provides the observational dataset required for EFC's pre-registered δκ shock-front test (figshare 31963668). The data are available; the bottleneck is EFC's internal test pipeline.

All cross-references:

INFORMS → conv_asig_shock_front_lensing_asymmetry_jwst_era_execution (Test) high
JWST-era Asig shock-front execution — literal match.
INFORMS → ledger_cluster_shockfront_lensing_asymmetry (Test) high
Direct match: 'pre-registered EFC δκ shock-front test'.

Mapping dark matter in the Bullet Cluster using JWST imaging and spectroscopy 1 confirmed 1 proposed

arXiv: 2601.22245 · Published: 2026-01 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Shock-front lensing asymmetry δκ (pre-registered EFC test)
External claim (verbatim)	Second JWST Bullet mass reconstruction; provides cross-check for EFC δκ pre-registration.
EFC tests informed	`ledger_cluster_merger_geometry` `ledger_cluster_shockfront_lensing_asymmetry`
Edges to graph	1 confirmed 1 proposed
Ledger action required	Link alongside 2503.21870 in Bullet Cluster under EFC paper.

EFC synthesis (verified)

Independent spectroscopically anchored JWST lens model with 135 multiple images across 27 systems (z_spec 0.9–6.7). Cross-checks arXiv:2503.21870's mass reconstruction, reducing the probability that both studies share systematic biases in the same direction. Strengthens the observational backing for EFC's δκ prediction test.

All cross-references:

INFORMS → ledger_cluster_merger_geometry (Test) medium · proposed
Mass reconstruction constrains merger geometry.
INFORMS → ledger_cluster_shockfront_lensing_asymmetry (Test) high
Second JWST Bullet mass reconstruction; cross-check.

Rotation curves — data and competing models

BIG-SPARC extends rotation-curve data beyond the 175-galaxy SPARC sample. In parallel, arXiv:2601.00522 presents a new empirical model claiming to outperform both MOND and CDM halos. Both point to the same next step: execute Kill-Test v6 universality on the expanded data, then run head-to-head ΔAIC comparison against the competitor. No EFC analysis has yet run against these new resources.

BIG-SPARC: The new SPARC database 2 confirmed

arXiv: 2411.13329 · Published: 2024-11 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Galaxy rotation curves; Kill-Test v6 universality
External claim (verbatim)	Expanded SPARC; enables direct extension of Kill-Test v6 Universality beyond 175 galaxies.
EFC tests informed	`conv_kt_3_locked_transfer_universality_sparc_clusters_f_8_bullet_` `ledger_galaxy_rotation_curves_sparc`
Edges to graph	2 confirmed
Ledger action required	Re-run scipy.differential_evolution pipeline (seed=42) on BIG-SPARC; closes gap theory-multicomponent-sparc-universality.

EFC synthesis (verified)

BIG-SPARC extends rotation-curve galaxy coverage beyond the 175-galaxy SPARC sample. Enables direct extension of EFC's Kill-Test v6 universality claim to a larger population. The scipy.differential_evolution pipeline (seed=42) has not yet been executed against BIG-SPARC; closing gap theory-multicomponent-sparc-universality awaits that run.

All cross-references:

INFORMS → ledger_galaxy_rotation_curves_sparc (Test) high
Expanded SPARC dataset.
INFORMS → conv_kt_3_locked_transfer_universality_sparc_clusters_f_8_bullet_ (Test) high
Kill-Test v6 universality extension.

A New Empirical Fit to Galaxy Rotation Curves 1 confirmed

arXiv: 2601.00522 · Published: 2026-01 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Galaxy rotation curves; Kill-Test v6 universality
External claim (verbatim)	Competitor empirical model claiming to outperform MOND and CDM halos; must be AIC-compared against EFC Kill-Test v6.
Competes with theory	Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC)
Edges to graph	1 confirmed
Ledger action required	Add to WP3 competitor-landscape table; run head-to-head ΔAIC on SPARC 175.

EFC synthesis (verified)

An empirical rotation-curve model claiming to outperform both MOND and CDM halos. A competitor to EFC in the SPARC regime that must be subjected to head-to-head ΔAIC comparison on SPARC 175 before any relative assessment can be made. This is a competing framing, not confirmatory evidence.

All cross-references:

COMPETES_WITH → Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC) (Theory) high
Competitor empirical model. Parser multi-labels as Framework and creates COMPETES_WITH edge.

Future arbiters (awaiting data)

Euclid DR1 (2100 deg² cosmic shear) lands on 2026-10-21 and is expected to arbitrate the DES Y6 vs KiDS-Legacy S8 disagreement. EFC holds a sealed pre-registered pipeline (figshare 31990053, B0=0.02, M0=0.06). No directional assessment is to be written before DR1 is publicly released — this is a genuine blind test, not a consistency check.

Frozen until 2026-10-21 — no directional assessment before data release.

Euclid Data Release 1 (2100 deg² cosmic shear) 3 confirmed

Published: 2026-10-21 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Sealed blind test; Euclid DR1 (FROZEN until 2026-10-21)
External claim (verbatim)	Arbitrates DES Y6 vs KiDS S8 disagreement; tests sealed EFC pipeline (figshare 31990053, B0=0.02, M0=0.06).
EFC tests informed	`conv_euclid_dr1_frozen_benchmark_b0_0_02_m0_0_06_boltzmann_calibr` `conv_euclid_dr1_pre_registration_pipeline_via_hi_class` `ledger_euclid_dr1_boltzmann_preregistration`
Edges to graph	3 confirmed
Ledger action required	Keep predictions FROZEN; mark Gap Analysis row 'awaiting DR1'. No action until Oct 21 2026.

EFC synthesis (verified)

Euclid DR1 (2100 deg² cosmic shear) is the scheduled arbiter of the DES Y6 vs KiDS-Legacy S8 disagreement. EFC holds a sealed pre-registered pipeline (figshare 31990053, B0=0.02, M0=0.06) frozen until release. No directional assessment will be written until data are publicly available on 2026-10-21 — this is a genuine blind test, not a consistency check.

All cross-references:

INFORMS → conv_euclid_dr1_pre_registration_pipeline_via_hi_class (Test) high
Execution vehicle for DR1 frozen test.
INFORMS → conv_euclid_dr1_frozen_benchmark_b0_0_02_m0_0_06_boltzmann_calibr (Test) high
Sealed EFC pipeline (B0=0.02, M0=0.06).
INFORMS → ledger_euclid_dr1_boltzmann_preregistration (Test) high
Public-ledger counterpart of frozen benchmark.

Competing theoretical frameworks

Informational Entropic Gravity (2026 preprint) is the closest ontological relative to EFC published this year — an alternative formulation of gravity as macroscopic informational-entropy equilibrium on holographic boundaries. arXiv:2601.00522 represents an empirical competitor on the rotation-curve front. Both require formal recovery-conditions comparison (WP1) and head-to-head ΔAIC evaluation before any relative assessment. These are positions EFC must be chosen over, not mere consistency checks.

Informational Entropic Gravity (IEG) 1 confirmed

Published: 2026-01 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Alternative theoretical frameworks; recovery-condition comparison
External claim (verbatim)	Closest ontological relative published in 2026; gravity as macroscopic equilibrium of informational entropy on holographic boundaries.
Competes with theory	Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC)
Edges to graph	1 confirmed
Ledger action required	List in Elevator Pitch 'related frameworks' and compare recovery conditions in WP1.

EFC synthesis (verified)

The closest ontological relative to EFC published in 2026 — formulating gravity as macroscopic informational-entropy equilibrium on holographic boundaries. A theoretical competitor rather than empirical data; requires formal recovery-conditions comparison against EFC in WP1 before either framework can claim priority. A position EFC must be chosen over, not merely a consistency check.

All cross-references:

COMPETES_WITH → Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC) (Theory) high
Closest ontological relative in 2026 literature. Parser multi-labels as Framework and creates COMPETES_WITH edge.

A New Empirical Fit to Galaxy Rotation Curves 1 confirmed

arXiv: 2601.00522 · Published: 2026-01 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link

Impact on EFC

EFC aspect probed	Galaxy rotation curves; Kill-Test v6 universality
External claim (verbatim)	Competitor empirical model claiming to outperform MOND and CDM halos; must be AIC-compared against EFC Kill-Test v6.
Competes with theory	Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC)
Edges to graph	1 confirmed
Ledger action required	Add to WP3 competitor-landscape table; run head-to-head ΔAIC on SPARC 175.

EFC synthesis (verified)

All cross-references:

COMPETES_WITH → Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC) (Theory) high
Competitor empirical model. Parser multi-labels as Framework and creates COMPETES_WITH edge.