RCMP framing. EFC is read by regime (L0–L3), not by the background: ΛCDM is the special-case limit of EFC in L0/L1, derived from the variational action (K(ρ)→∞ ⇒ μ,Σ,η→1), so recovering ΛCDM there is a designed feature, not a contest. EFC-distinctive physics lives in L2 (perturbation/growth) and L3 (galactic). falsification_status ≠ model_preference.
Version 1.1 ·
Last verified: Morten Magnusson ·
Generated: 2026-04-29T09:00:00.000000Z
2026-05-01 ledger-impact review (pending verification).
A delta-scan against the seven thematic clusters identified eleven external items
not yet present as own rows: a Combined-CMB S8=0.836 baseline, a modelfree
w(z) reconstruction with phantom crossings near z ≈ 0.5 / 1.5, a joint
ACT+SPT+Planck CMB-lensing × DESI DR2 BAO result (S8≈0.828),
a KiDS-Legacy standalone entry, three late-universe H0 anchors (SH0ES, TRGB
CCHP, TDCOSMO) tied to P7's three-window decomposition, the eROSITA / SPT-3G cluster
cosmology split tied to the μ<1, Σ>1 mechanism (P3), and Euclid Q2 plus
Rubin DP2 timeline updates. Items live in
external_research_watch.json · pending_review_2026_05_01 until each
arXiv/DOI is verified, after which they promote into items[] and propagate
into Neo4j and this rendered ledger via the standard pipeline. No sealed prediction
or DOI is altered by this maintenance pass.
2026-04-29 metadata refresh.
External papers below are unchanged. The April 2026 internal-DOI wave
(32084670 growth-sector closure,
32113399 H0 three-window,
32101111 bar-instability,
32101213 non-MCMC α,
VAL-2026-006) belongs to the
Validation Ledger per the evidential-separation rule.
The wave does, however, change how external papers are interpreted: the EFC growth-sector
is now structurally closed (no free parameters), so external constraints on fσ8
and S8 directly arbitrate the framework rather than tune it.
What this ledger is. A curated record of third-party
research that informs, constrains, competes with, or awaits EFC validation
tests. Each external paper is materialized in Neo4j as a
Publication node (multi-labeled :External, and
:Framework when it represents a competing theoretical
framework) and linked via typed edges:
INFORMS (paper provides data for an EFC test),
COMPETES_WITH (alternative theoretical framework), and
INFORMS_GAP/BLOCKS_RESOLUTION_OF (affects an EFC
knowledge gap).
How to read it. The matrix below gives a one-screen
overview. Each thematic cluster then has a short editorial synthesis,
followed by individual publication entries with a structured
Impact on EFC table, a verified EFC synthesis, and the full
cross-reference list into the validation-ledger test graph.
Evidential separation. External papers live here, in
this ledger. EFC's own publications (Figshare DOIs) live in the
Ledger evidence
register. These two layers never mix — a rule enforced both in the graph
schema (tier = 'external' vs own) and in this renderer.
Synthesis source. AI-drafted by claude-opus-4-7 from watchlist metadata fields only — title, efc_relevance, ledger_action, source_type. NOT based on full-text reading of referenced papers or abstracts.
Language policy. English only.
Claim discipline. Consistency is not confirmation.
Phrasing uses "informs", "tightens", "constrains", "challenges" —
never "supports"/"confirms" unless backed by a sealed blind test.
Alternative theoretical frameworks; recovery-condition comparison
Total across all themes
13
226
Graph edges column shows confirmed (green) and proposed (yellow)
edge counts per cluster. Proposed edges are medium/low-confidence
mappings awaiting follow-up review before auto-promotion.
Thematic clusters
DESI DR2 and dynamical dark energy (w₀wₐ)
DESI DR2 shows a 3.1σ preference for w₀wₐ over a pure cosmological constant, independently reproduced by the Nature Astronomy reanalysis. The direction is compatible with EFC's L2→L3 regime transition and with α = −0.14 ± 0.21. The same signal is, however, also predicted by holographic dark energy, quintessence, and several other frameworks — the field is moving away from ΛCDM, but it does not select EFC over competitors.
DESI DR2 Results II: BAO Measurements and Cosmological Constraints 2 confirmed
arXiv: 2503.14738 · Published: 2025-03-19 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link
Impact on EFC
EFC aspect probed
Dark energy evolution w(z); EFC α background parameter
External claim (verbatim)
2.3σ ΛCDM tension, 3.1σ preference for w0wa; supports EFC L2→L3 regime transition and WP4 T(S).
EFC tests informed
conv_desi_dr2_bao_constraint_post_prediction_
ledger_darkenergy_evolution_wz
Edges to graph
2 confirmed
Ledger action required
Add L2 row to Validation Ledger; update gap theory-background-hz-modification to 'decision-ready'.
EFC synthesis (verified)
DESI DR2 reports 2.3σ tension with ΛCDM and a 3.1σ preference for w₀wₐ dynamical dark energy over a pure cosmological constant. The w(z) signature is directionally consistent with EFC's L2→L3 regime transition and with α = −0.14 ± 0.21. The same signal is, however, accommodated by several competing frameworks — it constrains ΛCDM more than it selects EFC.
All cross-references:
INFORMS → ledger_darkenergy_evolution_wz (Test) high 3.1σ preference for w0wa directly informs dark-energy evolution w(z) test.
INFORMS → conv_desi_dr2_bao_constraint_post_prediction_ (Test) high Direct subject match: DESI DR2 BAO α-constraint.
Dynamical dark energy in light of DESI DR2 BAO (Nature Astronomy) 2 confirmed
DOI: 10.1038/s41550-025-02669-6 · Published: 2025-10-06 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link
Impact on EFC
EFC aspect probed
Dark energy evolution w(z); EFC α background parameter
External claim (verbatim)
Independent confirmation of w0wa preference; bolsters EFC 'LCDM as special case' (α = −0.14 ± 0.21).
EFC tests informed
desi_dr2_bao_alpha_constraint_v1
ledger_darkenergy_evolution_wz
Edges to graph
2 confirmed
Ledger action required
Cite in WP1 recovery conditions section.
EFC synthesis (verified)
Nature Astronomy reanalysis independently reproduces DESI DR2's w₀wₐ preference. This strengthens the empirical case that dark energy is not a simple cosmological constant, leaving EFC's α estimate (−0.14 ± 0.21) consistent with the preferred direction. It is independent confirmation of the signal, not selective evidence for EFC over alternative dynamical-DE frameworks.
All cross-references:
INFORMS → ledger_darkenergy_evolution_wz (Test) high Nature Astronomy paper on w0wa preference directly informs dark-energy evolution test.
INFORMS → desi_dr2_bao_alpha_constraint_v1 (Test) high efc_relevance cites α = −0.14 ± 0.21, the exact parameter of this test.
DES Y6 and the S8 tension (2026 series)
DES Y6 delivers S8 ≈ 0.79 from both cosmic shear and 3×2pt — 2.4–2.7σ lower than Planck+ACT+SPT (0.836), while KiDS-Legacy sits close to Planck. The 2026 review paper consolidates the picture: the probe split is a real feature, not an artifact. EFC's pre-registered DES Y6 P3 PASS (0.944 ± 0.018) and μ(a)<1 prediction survive the published numbers, but the observed tension admits multiple explanations beyond EFC — including baryonic feedback, intrinsic-alignment systematics, and other μ<1 models.
Dark Energy Survey Year 6: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear 1 confirmed2 proposed
arXiv: 2602.10065 · Published: 2026-02 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Probe: cosmic_shear_only · Link
Replace preliminary DES Y6 row in Validation Ledger with published values.
EFC synthesis (verified)
DES Y6 cosmic shear delivers S8 = 0.798 (NLA), carrying 2.6σ tension against Planck CMB. EFC's pre-registered DES Y6 P3 PASS (0.944 ± 0.018) and μ(a)<1 prediction survive under the published values. The observed tension is shared with multiple μ<1 models and baryonic-feedback scenarios — it tightens the baseline but does not discriminate among them.
All cross-references:
INFORMS → ledger_p3_lensingtocmb_s8ratio_des_y6_preregistered (Test) high efc_relevance cites 'EFC logged DES Y6 P3 PASS (0.944 ± 0.018)'.
INFORMS → ledger_weaklensing_shear_case_a (Test) low · proposed Graph has 4 Case A variants, no distinguishing evidence in watchlist. Needs Morten's pick.
INFORMS → conv_b0_bridge_test_f_sign_constraint_must_be_less_than_1 (Test) low · proposed Theory-shared μ<1 but not data-shared with B0 bridge test.
DES Y6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Clustering and Weak Lensing (3×2pt) 3 confirmed2 proposed
arXiv: 2601.14559 · Published: 2026-01 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Probe: 3x2pt · Link
Impact on EFC
EFC aspect probed
Perturbation-sector S8; EFC μ(a) < 1 prediction
External claim (verbatim)
S8 = 0.789 ± 0.012, Ωm = 0.333; wCDM: w = −1.12. Direct 3×2pt anchor for EFC perturbation sector tests.
Add to Validation Ledger (perturbation probes); cross-reference in WP3 Falsification Protocol.
EFC synthesis (verified)
DES Y6 3×2pt reports S8 = 0.789 ± 0.012, Ωm = 0.333, and wCDM w = −1.12. This is primary perturbation-sector data for EFC confrontation — combining galaxy clustering, cosmic shear, and galaxy-galaxy lensing into joint constraints on μ and Σ. No EFC analysis against this specific dataset has been executed yet.
All cross-references:
INFORMS → ledger_p3_lensingtocmb_s8ratio_des_y6_preregistered (Test) high DES Y6 3×2pt is the primary S8 probe referenced in P3 test.
INFORMS → conv_efc_physics_localization_perturbation_sector_not_background (Test) high 3×2pt IS perturbation-sector data.
INFORMS → conv_2d_degeneracy_valley_perturbation_sector_viability_with_grav (Test) medium · proposed One step more specific ('with_grav') than raw 3×2pt data provides.
INFORMS → conv_mgcamb_mu_sigma_perturbation_scan_constant_mu_sigma_1_ (Test) medium · proposed MGCAMB is analytical tool for interpreting 3×2pt.
Cite in WP3 Falsification Protocol and Validation Ledger preamble.
EFC synthesis (verified)
Review consolidating the S8 cross-probe picture: Planck+ACT+SPT = 0.836, DES Y6 2.4–2.7σ below Planck, KiDS-Legacy <1σ from Planck. Confirms the probe split as a stable feature of the 2026 data landscape, not a transient artifact. Informs EFC's L1→L2 transition framing — but offers no discriminating evidence against alternative μ<1 explanations.
All cross-references:
INFORMS → conv_des_y6_vs_kids_legacy_divergens_som_efc_strukturprediksjon (Test) high efc_relevance summarizes the DES Y6 vs KiDS divergence this test is named after.
Joint ACT + SPT + Planck CMB lensing reaches S8 = 0.825 at 1.6% precision (SNR 61). The precision exceeds what EFC's current Boltzmann-based pipeline handles numerically. This elevates the theory-efclass-boltzmann-solver gap to blocking: without a production-ready hi_class integration, EFC cannot meet this precision level head-to-head.
Unified structure growth from joint ACT, SPT and Planck CMB lensing 2 confirmed
arXiv: 2504.20038 · Published: 2025-04 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link
Update Stage-IV Roadmap CMB-lensing row; promote Boltzmann-solver gap to blocking.
EFC synthesis (verified)
Joint CMB-lensing analysis reaches S8 = 0.825 at 1.6% precision (SNR 61). The precision exceeds what EFC's current Boltzmann pipeline handles numerically, making theory-efclass-boltzmann-solver the binding gap. To compete at this regime EFC must deliver a production-grade hi_class integration.
All cross-references:
INFORMS → conv_hi_class_scalar_tensor_efc_falsification_test (Test) high hi_class / Boltzmann-solver pipeline is what ledger_action promotes to blocking.
INFORMS → ledger_cmb_lensing_gravitational_slip (Test) high Joint ACT+SPT+Planck CMB-lensing is primary data for CMB-lensing + slip test.
JWST Bullet Cluster — independent mass reconstructions
Two independent JWST mass reconstructions of the Bullet Cluster are now available: 146 strong-lensing constraints with dense weak-lensing source density (Cha/Jee/Finner) and 135 multiple images across 27 spectroscopic systems (Rihtaršič/Bradač). EFC's pre-registered δκ shock-front test (figshare 31963668) therefore has the observational data it requires. The bottleneck is EFC's internal pipeline, not the data — delivery responsibility lies with us, not with the field.
A High-Caliber View of the Bullet Cluster through JWST Strong and Weak Lensing 2 confirmed
arXiv: 2503.21870 · Published: 2025-03 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link
Move JWST Bullet δκ test up in Stage-IV Roadmap priority; data is available, test pipeline is now the bottleneck.
EFC synthesis (verified)
High-caliber JWST analysis of the Bullet Cluster combines 146 strong-lensing constraints with dense weak-lensing source density (398/arcmin²). Provides the observational dataset required for EFC's pre-registered δκ shock-front test (figshare 31963668). The data are available; the bottleneck is EFC's internal test pipeline.
Second JWST Bullet mass reconstruction; provides cross-check for EFC δκ pre-registration.
EFC tests informed
ledger_cluster_merger_geometry
ledger_cluster_shockfront_lensing_asymmetry
Edges to graph
1 confirmed1 proposed
Ledger action required
Link alongside 2503.21870 in Bullet Cluster under EFC paper.
EFC synthesis (verified)
Independent spectroscopically anchored JWST lens model with 135 multiple images across 27 systems (z_spec 0.9–6.7). Cross-checks arXiv:2503.21870's mass reconstruction, reducing the probability that both studies share systematic biases in the same direction. Strengthens the observational backing for EFC's δκ prediction test.
All cross-references:
INFORMS → ledger_cluster_merger_geometry (Test) medium · proposed Mass reconstruction constrains merger geometry.
INFORMS → ledger_cluster_shockfront_lensing_asymmetry (Test) high Second JWST Bullet mass reconstruction; cross-check.
Rotation curves — data and competing models
BIG-SPARC extends rotation-curve data beyond the 175-galaxy SPARC sample. In parallel, arXiv:2601.00522 presents a new empirical model claiming to outperform both MOND and CDM halos. Both point to the same next step: execute Kill-Test v6 universality on the expanded data, then run head-to-head ΔAIC comparison against the competitor. No EFC analysis has yet run against these new resources.
BIG-SPARC: The new SPARC database 2 confirmed
arXiv: 2411.13329 · Published: 2024-11 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link
Impact on EFC
EFC aspect probed
Galaxy rotation curves; Kill-Test v6 universality
External claim (verbatim)
Expanded SPARC; enables direct extension of Kill-Test v6 Universality beyond 175 galaxies.
Re-run scipy.differential_evolution pipeline (seed=42) on BIG-SPARC; closes gap theory-multicomponent-sparc-universality.
EFC synthesis (verified)
BIG-SPARC extends rotation-curve galaxy coverage beyond the 175-galaxy SPARC sample. Enables direct extension of EFC's Kill-Test v6 universality claim to a larger population. The scipy.differential_evolution pipeline (seed=42) has not yet been executed against BIG-SPARC; closing gap theory-multicomponent-sparc-universality awaits that run.
All cross-references:
INFORMS → ledger_galaxy_rotation_curves_sparc (Test) high Expanded SPARC dataset.
INFORMS → conv_kt_3_locked_transfer_universality_sparc_clusters_f_8_bullet_ (Test) high Kill-Test v6 universality extension.
A New Empirical Fit to Galaxy Rotation Curves 1 confirmed
arXiv: 2601.00522 · Published: 2026-01 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link
Impact on EFC
EFC aspect probed
Galaxy rotation curves; Kill-Test v6 universality
External claim (verbatim)
Competitor empirical model claiming to outperform MOND and CDM halos; must be AIC-compared against EFC Kill-Test v6.
Competes with theory
Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC)
Edges to graph
1 confirmed
Ledger action required
Add to WP3 competitor-landscape table; run head-to-head ΔAIC on SPARC 175.
EFC synthesis (verified)
An empirical rotation-curve model claiming to outperform both MOND and CDM halos. A competitor to EFC in the SPARC regime that must be subjected to head-to-head ΔAIC comparison on SPARC 175 before any relative assessment can be made. This is a competing framing, not confirmatory evidence.
All cross-references:
COMPETES_WITH → Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC) (Theory) high Competitor empirical model. Parser multi-labels as Framework and creates COMPETES_WITH edge.
Future arbiters (awaiting data)
Euclid DR1 (2100 deg² cosmic shear) lands on 2026-10-21 and is expected to arbitrate the DES Y6 vs KiDS-Legacy S8 disagreement. EFC holds a sealed pre-registered pipeline (figshare 31990053, B0=0.02, M0=0.06). No directional assessment is to be written before DR1 is publicly released — this is a genuine blind test, not a consistency check.
Frozen until 2026-10-21 — no directional assessment before data release.
Euclid Data Release 1 (2100 deg² cosmic shear) 3 confirmed
Published: 2026-10-21 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link
Impact on EFC
EFC aspect probed
Sealed blind test; Euclid DR1 (FROZEN until 2026-10-21)
External claim (verbatim)
Arbitrates DES Y6 vs KiDS S8 disagreement; tests sealed EFC pipeline (figshare 31990053, B0=0.02, M0=0.06).
Keep predictions FROZEN; mark Gap Analysis row 'awaiting DR1'. No action until Oct 21 2026.
EFC synthesis (verified)
Euclid DR1 (2100 deg² cosmic shear) is the scheduled arbiter of the DES Y6 vs KiDS-Legacy S8 disagreement. EFC holds a sealed pre-registered pipeline (figshare 31990053, B0=0.02, M0=0.06) frozen until release. No directional assessment will be written until data are publicly available on 2026-10-21 — this is a genuine blind test, not a consistency check.
All cross-references:
INFORMS → conv_euclid_dr1_pre_registration_pipeline_via_hi_class (Test) high Execution vehicle for DR1 frozen test.
INFORMS → conv_euclid_dr1_frozen_benchmark_b0_0_02_m0_0_06_boltzmann_calibr (Test) high Sealed EFC pipeline (B0=0.02, M0=0.06).
INFORMS → ledger_euclid_dr1_boltzmann_preregistration (Test) high Public-ledger counterpart of frozen benchmark.
Competing theoretical frameworks
Informational Entropic Gravity (2026 preprint) is the closest ontological relative to EFC published this year — an alternative formulation of gravity as macroscopic informational-entropy equilibrium on holographic boundaries. arXiv:2601.00522 represents an empirical competitor on the rotation-curve front. Both require formal recovery-conditions comparison (WP1) and head-to-head ΔAIC evaluation before any relative assessment. These are positions EFC must be chosen over, not mere consistency checks.
Informational Entropic Gravity (IEG) 1 confirmed
Published: 2026-01 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link
Impact on EFC
EFC aspect probed
Alternative theoretical frameworks; recovery-condition comparison
External claim (verbatim)
Closest ontological relative published in 2026; gravity as macroscopic equilibrium of informational entropy on holographic boundaries.
Competes with theory
Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC)
Edges to graph
1 confirmed
Ledger action required
List in Elevator Pitch 'related frameworks' and compare recovery conditions in WP1.
EFC synthesis (verified)
The closest ontological relative to EFC published in 2026 — formulating gravity as macroscopic informational-entropy equilibrium on holographic boundaries. A theoretical competitor rather than empirical data; requires formal recovery-conditions comparison against EFC in WP1 before either framework can claim priority. A position EFC must be chosen over, not merely a consistency check.
All cross-references:
COMPETES_WITH → Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC) (Theory) high Closest ontological relative in 2026 literature. Parser multi-labels as Framework and creates COMPETES_WITH edge.
A New Empirical Fit to Galaxy Rotation Curves 1 confirmed
arXiv: 2601.00522 · Published: 2026-01 · First seen: 2026-04-17 · Link
Impact on EFC
EFC aspect probed
Galaxy rotation curves; Kill-Test v6 universality
External claim (verbatim)
Competitor empirical model claiming to outperform MOND and CDM halos; must be AIC-compared against EFC Kill-Test v6.
Competes with theory
Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC)
Edges to graph
1 confirmed
Ledger action required
Add to WP3 competitor-landscape table; run head-to-head ΔAIC on SPARC 175.
EFC synthesis (verified)
An empirical rotation-curve model claiming to outperform both MOND and CDM halos. A competitor to EFC in the SPARC regime that must be subjected to head-to-head ΔAIC comparison on SPARC 175 before any relative assessment can be made. This is a competing framing, not confirmatory evidence.
All cross-references:
COMPETES_WITH → Energy-Flow Cosmology (EFC) (Theory) high Competitor empirical model. Parser multi-labels as Framework and creates COMPETES_WITH edge.