Morten Magnusson · Symbiose Research, Sandnes, Norway · ORCID: 0009-0002-4860-5095 · June 2026 · CC-BY-4.0
Purpose: Living assessment of what EFC needs vs what exists. Identifies gaps in pipeline readiness, theory, data timelines, and competitive landscape. Updated monthly or on significant external events. Last update: 2026-04-29.
April 2026 wave summary.
One atlas gap resolved by falsification: the EFC Π bar-instability criterion is
32101111 FALSIFIED as a bar predictor (AUC=0.217, 0/12 bars); Π is retained instead as a disk-state parameter (ρ[Π,logΣ]=−0.71, ρ[Π,fgas]=+0.65).
One structural reframing: H0_tension rolle upgraded from addresses_open
to proposes_resolution (32113399).
One mathematical lock: growth-sector coupling-structure closure proven
(32084670) — fσ8 and S8 are constrained by the proven coupling-structure closure (no free-parameter escape route); the robust derivation gives S8 ≈ 0.82 (31188193, shifted downward), not 0.847.
Two gaps still open: kSZ_velocity (no dedicated EFC paper) and
early_structure_JWST (no quantitative prediction paper) — registered as
vc_060aa393def7 and vc_eea84fbbf592.
Major events since the Roadmap was last frozen.
| Event | Date | Impact on EFC | Action Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMB-S4 cancelled | July 2025 | Primary future CMB lensing instrument lost. Sub-percent CMB lensing now depends on Simons Observatory + LiteBIRD (2032+). | DONE Roadmap updated. SO is the near-term replacement. |
| Simons Observatory LAT first light | Feb–Mar 2025 | CMB lensing reconstruction now operational. First SO × Euclid cross-correlation data expected ~2027. | DONE EG pre-registration sealed (32023788). |
| Rubin/LSST survey start | Early 2026 | Survey operational. DP2 expected Jul–Sep 2026. DR1 ~early 2028. | DONE Rubin DP2 shear pre-registration sealed (32013738): S8=0.847±0.015, ξ+ ~8% enhancement at 20′–300′ — this sealed value used the η-boost branch (η ∈ [1.05,1.15], 0% robust per 32037990); the robust EFC derivation (Σ ≈ 0.99 < 1) shifts S8 down to ≈ 0.82 (31188193). |
| DES Year 6 3×2pt released | Jan 2026 | S8 = 0.789 ± 0.012. P3 PASS at 0.3σ. 2.6σ tension with CMB. | DONE Logged in Ledger v3.9. |
| DESI DR2 BAO released | Mar 2025 | 2.8–4.2σ preference for w₀waCDM over ΛCDM. f(R) models strongly preferred. | DONE EFC regime fit ΔAIC = −18.01 (31230703). |
| DESI DR1 peculiar velocity fσ8 | Dec 2025 | fσ8(z=0.07) = 0.450 ± 0.055. Low-z, low discriminating power. | MED Monitor. DR2 full-shape RSD at z~0.5–0.7 is the key test. |
| Entropic gravity competitors on arXiv | 2025–2026 | Multiple models (2503.19056, 2503.08236, 2512.22103, 2508.13260) preferred over ΛCDM with DESI DR2. | MED Differentiate via the robust perturbation-sector discriminant (μ<1, Σ≥1). (η≈1.10 is fragile — 0% robust per 32037990.) |
| KC | Pipeline Status | Gap | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC1 P(k) full-shape | PREDICTION READY | None — hi_class + efc_logistic sealed (31990053). Awaiting DESI DR3 (~2027). | LOW |
| KC2 fσ8 trajectory | SEALED | None — sealed zcross = 2.042. Awaiting DESI DR3 Lyα + high-z RSD. | LOW |
| KC3 S8 convergence | P3 PASS | DES Y6 passed (0.3σ). KiDS Legacy divergence unresolved. Euclid DR1 (Oct 2026) will arbitrate. | MED |
| KC4 Perturbation-sector signature | SEALED | Perturbation sector reformulated (32037990): μ < 1 structurally robust (100% under ±20% variation), Σ ≥ 1 semi-robust (61%), η as point value fragile (0%). Distinctive test: non-monotonic Σeff(z) with sign change at z ≈ 0.44 (Euclid DR1 tomography) — fragile: the crossover needs Σ > 1 from the η-boost (η-dependent, 0% robust), robust EFC (η→1) gives Σ ≈ μ ≈ 0.99 flat (monotonic, ≈GR). Also sealed: SO × Euclid EG (32023788: EGEFC/EGGR = 1.086 ± 0.012 — fragile, η-dependent, 0% robust; robust EFC: EG ≈ 1), Rubin DP2 shear (32013738: S8=0.847±0.015 — η-boost branch; robust EFC: S8 ≈ 0.82), μ–Σ eigenmode (31990194). Horndeski QS with αT=0 was claimed strongly disfavored from reproducing μ<1 ∧ Σ>1 (numerical scan), but EFC reaches that quadrant only via the fragile η-boost; robust EFC (Σ ≈ μ < 1) does NOT exclude Horndeski. | DONE |
| KC5 Dark energy w(z) | Monitoring | Need formal w(a) = −β(S)·a confronted with Euclid DR1 chains. | MED |
| Gap | Status | Blocking | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bellini–Sawicki α-function mapping | CLOSED (32011407) | Euclid EFT pipeline compatibility | DONE αT=0, αM∝S(a), αB∝dS/d ln a derived. Stiffness response R(k,z) identified. |
| Background-level H(z) modification viability | CLOSED (31985163) | Sector localisation of EFC phenomenology | DONE No-Go theorem: any low-z background modification improving BAO (Δχ²BAO≈−14.6) is penalised by CMB distance priors (Δχ²CMB>+100), forcing EFC into the perturbation sector. |
| Full non-linear ADM Hamiltonian stability | Passed at 2nd order; full non-linear pending | FA6 | MED |
| EFCLASS Boltzmann solver | Partial (hi_class patch exists) | Full Cℓ predictions | MED |
| Multi-component 175-galaxy SPARC universality | Single-component completed (60.2% win rate) | Final rotation-curve validation | CLOSED (32029704) |
| Neutrino mass degeneracy analysis | Not started | EFC+DESI ν-mass differs from ΛCDM+DESI | MED |
| Perturbation-sector structural prediction (μ < 1 robust; Σ ≥ 1, crossover fragile) | CLOSED (32037990) | Channel separation after α collapse; μ < 1 robust, but the Σ > 1 / crossover branch is η-dependent (0% robust) | DONE Full (μ, Σ, η) system derived from EFC action; the Σeff(z) crossover at z ≈ 0.44 and the Horndeski-disfavoured (μ<1 ∧ Σ>1) combination both rest on the η-boost (η-dependent, 0% robust); robust EFC (η→1, Σ ≈ μ < 1) is monotonic ≈GR and does NOT exclude Horndeski. μ < 1 robust; ghost/tachyon-free in sub-horizon regime. |
| Growth-sector mathematical closure | CLOSED (32084670) | Final theoretical lock on P2 + P4 + P3 | DONE Vekstsektor-koblingssystemet (Sflow, Slatent, ξ) er bevist selvkonsistent med entydige løsninger under EBE-betingelser. fσ8 og S8 er bundet av den beviste koblingsstruktur-lukkingen (ingen fri-parameter escape route); den robuste avledningen gir S8 ≈ 0.82 (skiftet nedover, 31188193), ikke 0.847. |
| H0 tension structural resolution | CLOSED (32113399) | Atlas role upgrade for H0_tension | DONE Three-window decomposition: Planck (L0), DESI (L1), SH0ES (L2) measure H0 in distinct regime windows. Atlas role upgraded from addresses_open to proposes_resolution (2026-04-29). |
| Bar-instability Π criterion | FALSIFIED (32101111) | Bar-prediction claim | DONE The EFC Π bar-criterion is FALSIFIED as a bar predictor (AUC=0.217, 0/12 bars, anti-correlated within physical ζ). Π is retained not as a bar predictor but as an independent disk-state parameter (ρ[Π,logΣ]=−0.71, ρ[Π,fgas]=+0.65, n=112; replicated on xGASS). Validation candidate vc_140e79363cbe registered against SPARC + S4G + Galaxy Zoo. |
| α-parameter independent constraint (non-MCMC) | CLOSED (32101213) | EMCEE/NUTS internal degeneracy | DONE Three independent channels (SPARC175 RC, NUTS BAO+Hz, analytic non-MCMC) all give α ∈ [−0.72, −0.68]. Both frozen blind freezes (−0.689, −0.702) consistent. α is now over-determined. |
| kSZ velocity — dedicated EFC prediction paper | OPEN | Atlas kSZ_velocity only addressed via test_observation node ACT_kSZ_2604_14327; no quantitative EFC prediction paper exists | HIGH Validation candidate vc_060aa393def7 registered. Needed: explicit kSZ-amplitude prediction from EFC perturbation sector. |
| Early structure JWST — quantitative prediction paper | OPEN | Atlas early_structure_JWST has only predicts_L3_early qualitative role; observation paper 31059964 confirms z>6 abundance excess but no formal EFC quantitative match exists | HIGH Validation candidate vc_eea84fbbf592 registered. Needed: dN/dM formal halo-mass-function prediction at z > 6 with EFC entropy-flow boost factor. |
| Dataset | Release | Key EFC Observables | EFC Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DES Y6 | Jan 2026 RELEASED | S8 = 0.789 ± 0.012 | P3 PASS (0.3σ) | None |
| DESI DR2 BAO | Mar 2025 RELEASED | BAO DM/DH; DE preference | Consistent | Verify αL2 against chains |
| DESI DR2 full-shape RSD | ~2026 PENDING | fσ8(z=0.5–0.7) | Sealed (32013156): fσ8(z=0.7)=0.430 vs ΛCDM 0.449; DH/rd(z=0.7)=19.797 vs 20.719; DH/rd(z=1.0)=16.527 vs 17.466 | MONITOR |
| Euclid Q2 | Jun 24, 2026 | Shape validation | Precursor | Monitor shear calibration |
| Rubin DP2 | Jul–Sep 2026 | Early shear catalogue | SEALED (32013738): S8=0.847±0.015 (η-boost branch, fragile/0% robust per 32037990; robust EFC: S8 ≈ 0.82), ξ+ ~8% enhancement at 20′–300′ | Monitor DP2 release |
| Euclid DR1 | Oct 21, 2026 | fσ8, S8, EG, P(k), η | SEALED (31990053) | Verify pipeline scripts |
| SO CMB lensing | ~2026–2027 | Cℓφφ, SO×Euclid EG | SEALED (32023788) | Awaiting SO × Euclid DR2 data (~2027–2028) |
| KiDS Legacy | ~2027 | Resolves DES vs KiDS S8 split | Monitoring | None until release |
| DESI DR3 | ~2027–2028 | Full RSD + BAO 5-year | Sealed predictions locked | Long-term planning |
| Rubin DR1 | ~early 2028 | S8 >5× DES precision | Not pre-registered | Pre-register by ~2027 |
| Euclid DR2 | ~2028 | η to percent level, EG | KC4 decisive test | Requires Bellini-Sawicki mapping |
| LiteBIRD | 2032+ | Primordial B-modes, τ | CMB baseline update | No action before 2030 |
| # | Action | Deadline | Blocking | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monitor DESI for DR2 full-shape RSD paper at z~0.5–0.7. Only pending direct test of sealed fσ8(z=0.7) = 0.430. | Now (ongoing) | KC2 early check | ACTIVE |
| 2 | Jul 2026 | Euclid DR1 EFT compatibility | DONE | |
| 3 | Jul 2026 | Rubin DP2 | DONE | |
| 4 | Sep 2026 | KC4 | DONE | |
| 5 | Verify Euclid DR1 pipeline scripts version-controlled and DOI-stamped. Prediction already sealed. | Oct 2026 | KC3, FA2 | SEALED |
| 6 | Derive effective w₀, wa from EFC susceptibility T(S) for Euclid DR1 + DESI DR3 joint chains. | 2027 | KC5 | PLANNED |
| 7 | Complete multi-component 175-galaxy SPARC universality with fixed (K0, m²). | 2027 | F5 galactic sector | CLOSED (32029704) |
| 8 | Run Π cross-population test against SPARC + S4G + Galaxy Zoo per vc_140e79363cbe. The Π bar-criterion is already FALSIFIED as a bar predictor (AUC=0.217, 0/12 bars, 32101111); the test now confirms Π as a disk-state parameter (vs logΣ, fgas), not as a bar predictor. | 2026 H2 | Π disk-state parameter | ACTIVE |
| 9 | Build joint regime-disaggregated H0 chain (Planck L0 + DESI L1 + SH0ES L2 + Euclid DR1) per vc_e36e011d1270. Tests P7 three-window prediction. | 2026 H2 | P7 + atlas role upgrade | ACTIVE |
| 10 | Write dedicated kSZ velocity prediction paper (vc_060aa393def7). Atlas kSZ_velocity currently only tested via observation node, no EFC theoretical prediction. | 2026 H2 | kSZ-gap closure | PLANNED |
| 11 | Write dedicated JWST high-z structure prediction paper (vc_eea84fbbf592). Convert predicts_L3_early from qualitative to quantitative dN/dM(z>6) with entropy-flow boost factor. | 2026 H2 | JWST-gap closure | PLANNED |
| 12 | Resolve EMCEE vs NUTS α-degeneracy: EMCEE returns α=−0.10 (0.5σ) while NUTS + non-MCMC return α ∈ [−0.72, −0.68]. Suggests prior or chain configuration issue, not theory failure. | 2026 H2 | MCMC-daemon STOPPED_DEGENERACY_PERSISTS | ACTIVE |
| Model | arXiv | Key Claim | EFC Differentiator |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modified entropic gravity (Odintsov+) | 2503.08236 | Modified Friedmann from extended entropy; fits Pantheon+BAO+Planck | EFC has perturbation-sector predictions (μ<1, Σ>1 [η-boost, fragile], η); competitor is background-only |
| Mass-to-horizon entropic cosmology | 2508.13260, 2512.22103 | Bayesian analysis vs DESI DR2 BAO; preferred over ΛCDM | EFC has galactic-scale RAR (k=0.415) and cross-scale P3 link; competitor lacks galactic sector |
| f(R) gravity (DESI DR2) | 2504.05432 | Starobinsky/Exponential f(R) strongly preferred with DESI DR2 | EFC has μ<1 (f(R) has μ>1); sign of μ is the discriminant (FA2) |
| Ray-traced screened MG for LSST | 2604.08393 | LSST-specific predictions for screened MG | Methodological template — EFC should adapt for its own LSST predictions |
EFC’s standing is regime-stratified: ΛCDM is the special-case limit in L0/L1 (derived from the EFC variational action), so EFC is judged by regime, not by the background. Source: validation-ledger/data/ledger_truth.json — the canonical narrative all ledgers derive from.
| Regime | Verdict | Status |
|---|---|---|
| L0/L1 background / linear | ΛCDM recovered | The designed special-case limit (a feature, not a contest). α = −0.14 ± 0.21 consistent with ΛCDM. The Planck(L0)/DESI(L1)/lensing(L2) S8 spread is regime-stratification, not pure tension. |
| L2 perturbation / growth | OPEN frontier | Robust: μ<1 growth-suppression mechanism (points S8 down). Fragile: Σ>1 / η-boost enhancements (0%-robust). The α growth-signal collapsed to 0.68σ post-DESI-DR2; ΛCDM preferred in the joint background fit (ΔAIC=+1.59 — mild, not a falsification; the separate Variant-H growth-extension MCMC gives +4.05). Decisive blind test: P2 (fσ8, DESI DR2); P1 (Φ/Ψ slip) is a weak discriminator for robust EFC (near-GR). |
| L3 galactic / void | EFC strongest | Galaxy rotation curves fit without particle dark matter via one universal screening parameter k ≈ 0.415 ± 0.029 (Kill-Test v6: 171/175 SPARC, 60.2% EFC win; DDO 154 ΔAIC=35.4). Deep-void ISW sign-flip. MOND-class — competitive, not decisive; Bullet Cluster tied. |
Bottom line: EFC is non-rejectable, not a breakthrough; ΛCDM is preferred in the joint fits. The P4 sign is decisive and RCMP-sharpening — the sealed S8 = 0.847 is CMB-near (→ DAMAGE vs lensing); the μ<1 mechanism, not the number, points down. (falsification_status ≠ model_preference.)
Summary derived from docs/validation-ledger/data/ledger.json,
inference.json, and .claude/symbiose_snapshot.json.
Every row below can be regenerated by running
python3 scripts/maintenance/efc_symbiose_snapshot.py --from-ledger
followed by python3 scripts/maintenance/efc_cross_validate.py.
| Metric | Value | Source / Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Validation tests | 106/116 survived on the active set (142 total incl. 26 planned; 10 falsified) | ledger.stats.total_public=142, planned_pipeline=26, n_falsified=10 → 116 active, 106 survived ≈ 91%. |
| Inference modules | 5/7 active (real χ²) · 1 self-consistent · 1 LCDM stub | inference.json: active — bao_boss_dr12 (χ²r=2.18), cluster_core_state (108.8, FAILED), shear_kids1000 (10.4), fs8_extended (0.554), hz_chronometers (1.549); self-consistent — cluster_tng. fs8_extended + hz_chronometers newly anchored to DOI-verified primary data: fσ8 — 6dFGS (10.1111/j.1365-2966.2012.21136.x), SDSS-MGS (10.1093/mnras/stu2693), BOSS DR12 (10.1093/mnras/stx721), VIPERS (10.1051/0004-6361/201526553), FastSound (10.1093/pasj/psw029); H(z) — cosmic chronometers (Moresco+2022 compilation, 10.1007/s41114-022-00040-z). χ² at LCDM baseline; EFC(α=−0.68) fits both BETTER (0.340 / 0.941), corroborating the joint-MCMC α-signal. 1 LCDM stub: bao_desi_y1 — placeholder data (DH/r_d rises with z = unphysical; z-bins 0.70/0.85 are not DESI’s), pending real DESI DR1/DR2 BAO values. |
| α-signal (LOO blind) | 2.20σ (α = −1.00 ± 0.46, ΔAIC = −2.91) | Research-daemon LOO MCMC (last published cycle). Published snapshot is ledger_fallback (snapshot.alpha_signal.status="unknown"), so this is the last published LOO figure; the research-daemon is currently running — refreshable on live snapshot regen. Post-DESI-DR2 this growth signal collapsed to 0.68σ; the joint background fit prefers ΛCDM (ΔAIC=+1.59 — graph-verified; the separate Variant-H growth-extension gives +4.05). |
| GRAV pipeline (Grid-AQUAL) | 2 KT PASSED, 1 MARGINAL (KT3) | ledger.stats.grav_kt_count=3, grav_kt_passed=2, grav_kt_marginal=1; 2 integration explosions logged in snapshot. |
| Sealed blind predictions | 2 frozen (SHA-256) — α = −0.689 (v1), −0.702 (v2) | Matches symbiose_snapshot.sealed_predictions.freeze_1/2, hashes 7a850cfa… and dbccda15…. |
| Inference fit quality | 1 warning: shear_kids1000 χ²red=10.4 | Cross-validate flags as "poor fit" despite DOI-anchored status; KiDS-1000 chain remains the chief tension. Corroborated by DES Y6 P3 PASS at 0.3σ. |
| Symbiose live pipeline | Online (neo4j + qdrant + API up; research-daemon healthy) | Services restored — Neo4j + Qdrant + unified-API responding, research-daemon running (Up 20h). Published snapshot.source is still ledger_fallback; regenerate via efc_symbiose_snapshot.py with live MCP data to populate live health / knowledge-gap / learning-loop metrics. |
| Biggest gap right now | DESI DR2 full-shape RSD rapid-response pipeline — sealed prediction exists (fσ8(z=0.7) = 0.430, 32013156) but no single-entry-point verification script is assembled. Paper could drop any time. Secondary: Euclid DR1 pipeline verification (Oct 2026). All HIGH-priority pre-registrations now CLOSED (SO × Euclid EG in 32023788; Rubin DP2 in 32013738; Bellini–Sawicki in 32011407; Background-modification viability in 31985163.) |
| Most urgent monitor | DESI DR2 full-shape RSD — direct test of sealed fσ8(z=0.7) = 0.430 prediction (32013156). Rapid-response pipeline needs assembly. |
| Most urgent pre-registration | None — all HIGH-priority pre-registrations are sealed. Next pre-registration target: Rubin DR1 (deadline ~2027). |
| Key differentiator vs competitors | Robust μ < 1 (the Σ ≥ 1 branch is η-dependent / 61% semi-robust) + H0 three-window — no competitor model predicts this combination. (η ≈ 1.10 is fragile/0% robust per 32037990; the Π bar-criterion is FALSIFIED as a bar predictor per 32101111 — neither is a differentiator.) |
| Automated monitoring | efc_weekly_scan.py runs every Monday 07:00 UTC via GitHub Actions |
| Open phenomenon gaps | Two: kSZ_velocity (no dedicated EFC prediction paper) and early_structure_JWST (no quantitative dN/dM prediction). Both registered as validation candidates and slated for 2026 H2. |
| Outstanding internal tension | EMCEE vs NUTS α-degeneracy (EMCEE: −0.10 / 0.5σ; NUTS + non-MCMC: −0.70). Action #12 active. Not a theory failure — chain-config or prior issue. DOI 32101213 over-determines α from three independent channels. |
© 2026 Energy-Flow Cosmology Initiative · Gap Analysis — auto-updated by weekly scan