Morten Magnusson · Symbiose Research, Sandnes, Norway · ORCID: 0009-0002-4860-5095 · April 2026 · CC-BY-4.0
Purpose: Living assessment of what EFC needs vs what exists. Identifies gaps in pipeline readiness, theory, data timelines, and competitive landscape. Updated monthly or on significant external events. Last update: 2026-04-17.
Major events since the Roadmap was last frozen.
| Event | Date | Impact on EFC | Action Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMB-S4 cancelled | July 2025 | Primary future CMB lensing instrument lost. Sub-percent CMB lensing now depends on Simons Observatory + LiteBIRD (2032+). | DONE Roadmap updated. SO is the near-term replacement. |
| Simons Observatory LAT first light | Feb–Mar 2025 | CMB lensing reconstruction now operational. First SO × Euclid cross-correlation data expected ~2027. | DONE EG pre-registration sealed (32023788). |
| Rubin/LSST survey start | Early 2026 | Survey operational. DP2 expected Jul–Sep 2026. DR1 ~early 2028. | DONE Rubin DP2 shear pre-registration sealed (32013738): S8=0.847±0.015, ξ+ ~8% enhancement at 20′–300′. |
| DES Year 6 3×2pt released | Jan 2026 | S8 = 0.789 ± 0.012. P3 PASS at 0.3σ. 2.6σ tension with CMB. | DONE Logged in Ledger v3.9. |
| DESI DR2 BAO released | Mar 2025 | 2.8–4.2σ preference for w₀waCDM over ΛCDM. f(R) models strongly preferred. | DONE EFC regime fit ΔAIC = −18.01 (31230703). |
| DESI DR1 peculiar velocity fσ8 | Dec 2025 | fσ8(z=0.07) = 0.450 ± 0.055. Low-z, low discriminating power. | MED Monitor. DR2 full-shape RSD at z~0.5–0.7 is the key test. |
| Entropic gravity competitors on arXiv | 2025–2026 | Multiple models (2503.19056, 2503.08236, 2512.22103, 2508.13260) preferred over ΛCDM with DESI DR2. | MED Differentiate via perturbation-sector discriminant (μ<1, Σ>1, η≈1.10). |
| KC | Pipeline Status | Gap | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC1 P(k) full-shape | PREDICTION READY | None — hi_class + efc_logistic sealed (31990053). Awaiting DESI DR3 (~2027). | LOW |
| KC2 fσ8 trajectory | SEALED | None — sealed zcross = 2.042. Awaiting DESI DR3 Lyα + high-z RSD. | LOW |
| KC3 S8 convergence | P3 PASS | DES Y6 passed (0.3σ). KiDS Legacy divergence unresolved. Euclid DR1 (Oct 2026) will arbitrate. | MED |
| KC4 Perturbation-sector signature | SEALED | Perturbation sector reformulated (32037990): μ < 1 structurally robust (100% under ±20% variation), Σ ≥ 1 semi-robust (61%), η as point value fragile (0%). New distinctive test: non-monotonic Σeff(z) with sign change at z ≈ 0.44 (Euclid DR1 tomography). Also sealed: SO × Euclid EG (32023788: EGEFC/EGGR = 1.086 ± 0.012), Rubin DP2 shear (32013738: S8=0.847±0.015), μ–Σ eigenmode (31990194). Horndeski QS with αT=0 strongly disfavored from reproducing μ<1 ∧ Σ>1 (numerical scan). | DONE |
| KC5 Dark energy w(z) | Monitoring | Need formal w(a) = −β(S)·a confronted with Euclid DR1 chains. | MED |
| Gap | Status | Blocking | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bellini–Sawicki α-function mapping | CLOSED (32011407) | Euclid EFT pipeline compatibility | DONE αT=0, αM∝S(a), αB∝dS/d ln a derived. Stiffness response R(k,z) identified. |
| Background-level H(z) modification viability | CLOSED (31985163) | Sector localisation of EFC phenomenology | DONE No-Go theorem: any low-z background modification improving BAO (Δχ²BAO≈−14.6) is penalised by CMB distance priors (Δχ²CMB>+100), forcing EFC into the perturbation sector. |
| Full non-linear ADM Hamiltonian stability | Passed at 2nd order; full non-linear pending | FA6 | MED |
| EFCLASS Boltzmann solver | Partial (hi_class patch exists) | Full Cℓ predictions | MED |
| Multi-component 175-galaxy SPARC universality | Single-component completed (60.2% win rate) | Final rotation-curve validation | CLOSED (32029704) |
| Neutrino mass degeneracy analysis | Not started | EFC+DESI ν-mass differs from ΛCDM+DESI | MED |
| Perturbation-sector structural prediction (μ < 1, Σ ≥ 1, crossover) | CLOSED (32037990) | Channel separation after α collapse; replaces fragile point predictions | DONE Full (μ, Σ, η) system derived from EFC action; Horndeski QS with αT=0 strongly disfavored (135k-point scan); Σeff(z) crossover at z ≈ 0.44 sealed; ghost/tachyon-free in sub-horizon regime. |
| Dataset | Release | Key EFC Observables | EFC Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DES Y6 | Jan 2026 RELEASED | S8 = 0.789 ± 0.012 | P3 PASS (0.3σ) | None |
| DESI DR2 BAO | Mar 2025 RELEASED | BAO DM/DH; DE preference | Consistent | Verify αL2 against chains |
| DESI DR2 full-shape RSD | ~2026 PENDING | fσ8(z=0.5–0.7) | Sealed (32013156): fσ8(z=0.7)=0.430 vs ΛCDM 0.449; DH/rd(z=0.7)=19.797 vs 20.719; DH/rd(z=1.0)=16.527 vs 17.466 | MONITOR |
| Euclid Q2 | Jun 24, 2026 | Shape validation | Precursor | Monitor shear calibration |
| Rubin DP2 | Jul–Sep 2026 | Early shear catalogue | SEALED (32013738): S8=0.847±0.015, ξ+ ~8% enhancement at 20′–300′ | Monitor DP2 release |
| Euclid DR1 | Oct 21, 2026 | fσ8, S8, EG, P(k), η | SEALED (31990053) | Verify pipeline scripts |
| SO CMB lensing | ~2026–2027 | Cℓφφ, SO×Euclid EG | SEALED (32023788) | Awaiting SO × Euclid DR2 data (~2027–2028) |
| KiDS Legacy | ~2027 | Resolves DES vs KiDS S8 split | Monitoring | None until release |
| DESI DR3 | ~2027–2028 | Full RSD + BAO 5-year | Sealed predictions locked | Long-term planning |
| Rubin DR1 | ~early 2028 | S8 >5× DES precision | Not pre-registered | Pre-register by ~2027 |
| Euclid DR2 | ~2028 | η to percent level, EG | KC4 decisive test | Requires Bellini-Sawicki mapping |
| LiteBIRD | 2032+ | Primordial B-modes, τ | CMB baseline update | No action before 2030 |
| # | Action | Deadline | Blocking | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monitor DESI for DR2 full-shape RSD paper at z~0.5–0.7. Only pending direct test of sealed fσ8(z=0.7) = 0.430. | Now (ongoing) | KC2 early check | ACTIVE |
| 2 | Jul 2026 | Euclid DR1 EFT compatibility | DONE | |
| 3 | Jul 2026 | Rubin DP2 | DONE | |
| 4 | Sep 2026 | KC4 | DONE | |
| 5 | Verify Euclid DR1 pipeline scripts version-controlled and DOI-stamped. Prediction already sealed. | Oct 2026 | KC3, FA2 | SEALED |
| 6 | Derive effective w₀, wa from EFC susceptibility T(S) for Euclid DR1 + DESI DR3 joint chains. | 2027 | KC5 | PLANNED |
| 7 | Complete multi-component 175-galaxy SPARC universality with fixed (K0, m²). | 2027 | F5 galactic sector | PLANNED |
| Model | arXiv | Key Claim | EFC Differentiator |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modified entropic gravity (Odintsov+) | 2503.08236 | Modified Friedmann from extended entropy; fits Pantheon+BAO+Planck | EFC has perturbation-sector predictions (μ<1, Σ>1, η); competitor is background-only |
| Mass-to-horizon entropic cosmology | 2508.13260, 2512.22103 | Bayesian analysis vs DESI DR2 BAO; preferred over ΛCDM | EFC has galactic-scale RAR (k=0.415) and cross-scale P3 link; competitor lacks galactic sector |
| f(R) gravity (DESI DR2) | 2504.05432 | Starobinsky/Exponential f(R) strongly preferred with DESI DR2 | EFC has μ<1 (f(R) has μ>1); sign of μ is the discriminant (FA2) |
| Ray-traced screened MG for LSST | 2604.08393 | LSST-specific predictions for screened MG | Methodological template — EFC should adapt for its own LSST predictions |
Summary derived from docs/validation-ledger/data/ledger.json,
inference.json, and .claude/symbiose_snapshot.json.
Every row below can be regenerated by running
python3 scripts/maintenance/efc_symbiose_snapshot.py --from-ledger
followed by python3 scripts/maintenance/efc_cross_validate.py.
| Metric | Value | Source / Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Validation tests | 91/101 survived on the active set (119 total incl. 18 planned; 10 falsified) | ledger.stats.total_public=119, planned_pipeline=18, n_falsified=10 → 101 active, 91 survived ≈ 90%. |
| Inference modules | 6/6 DOI-anchored (0 LCDM stubs) | All 6 modules now carry doi_sources (bao_boss_dr12 31314922, bao_desi_y1 31230703+31231522, cluster_tng 31286368+31267297, fs8_extended 31955871+31292827, hz_chronometers 31215613+31304980, shear_kids1000 31271917+31951992+31188193). |
| α-signal (LOO blind) | 2.20σ (α = −1.00 ± 0.46, ΔAIC = −2.91) | inference.fs8_extended.result. Live Symbiose MCMC currently offline (snapshot.alpha_signal.status="unknown", source=ledger_fallback); this is the last sealed LOO figure. |
| GRAV pipeline (Grid-AQUAL) | 2 KT PASSED, 1 MARGINAL (KT3) | ledger.stats.grav_kt_count=3, grav_kt_passed=2, grav_kt_marginal=1; 2 integration explosions logged in snapshot. |
| Sealed blind predictions | 2 frozen (SHA-256) — α = −0.689 (v1), −0.702 (v2) | Matches symbiose_snapshot.sealed_predictions.freeze_1/2, hashes 7a850cfa… and dbccda15…. |
| Inference fit quality | 1 warning: shear_kids1000 χ²red=10.4 | Cross-validate flags as "poor fit" despite DOI-anchored status; KiDS-1000 chain remains the chief tension. Corroborated by DES Y6 P3 PASS at 0.3σ. |
| Symbiose live pipeline | Offline (neo4j + qdrant + GNN) | snapshot.source="ledger_fallback". Health score / knowledge-gap counts / learning-loop / escalation metrics are not available until the Symbiose service is restored. |
| Biggest gap right now | DESI DR2 full-shape RSD rapid-response pipeline — sealed prediction exists (fσ8(z=0.7) = 0.430, 32013156) but no single-entry-point verification script is assembled. Paper could drop any time. Secondary: Euclid DR1 pipeline verification (Oct 2026). All HIGH-priority pre-registrations now CLOSED (SO × Euclid EG in 32023788; Rubin DP2 in 32013738; Bellini–Sawicki in 32011407; Background-modification viability in 31985163.) |
| Most urgent monitor | DESI DR2 full-shape RSD — direct test of sealed fσ8(z=0.7) = 0.430 prediction (32013156). Rapid-response pipeline needs assembly. |
| Most urgent pre-registration | None — all HIGH-priority pre-registrations are sealed. Next pre-registration target: Rubin DR1 (deadline ~2027). |
| Key differentiator vs competitors | η ≈ 1.10 — no competitor model predicts this specific combination |
| Automated monitoring | efc_weekly_scan.py runs every Monday 07:00 UTC via GitHub Actions |
© 2026 Energy-Flow Cosmology Initiative · Gap Analysis — auto-updated by weekly scan